Methodology
"We look for the gap between the line and the reality."
A prop line is a price, not a prophecy. The market prices on perception, momentum, and public sentiment. We price on probability, matchup, and variance.
The market remembers.
The data separates.
Most bettors look at performance — the "what." We look at opportunity — the "why." A player scoring 30 on 80% shooting is a hot night. A player taking 25 shots because a teammate is out is a real, repeatable edge.
Our analytical framework
A clear baseline, adjusted for what's actually happening tonight.
- 20-game rolling median
- Season efficiency
- Historical variance band
- Depth-chart changes
- Defensive matchup rating
- Pace & possession factor
The raw numbers and the situation, combined into a clear projected value.
Status: verifiedOpportunity comes first.
We ignore "streaks" and focus on touches. If a shooter is cold but taking the same quality shots in the same minutes, that's not a slump — it's an undervalued player. Production is trailing; opportunity is leading.
Distributions, not averages.
A single big game can skew an average. We use the median and the full range to understand a player's floor and ceiling for this specific matchup.
Catching a skewed average before the market does.
How likely a big night is — versus a dud.
Signal stacking
One data point is noise. Several pointing the same way is a setup.
When the signals line up
When four or more signals point the same direction, the setup gets materially stronger. That's what a high Edge Score reflects.
Edge Score
Our single measure of setup quality. It combines historical probability with where the market looks off. Any sheet above 80 is a high-conviction setup backed by multiple supporting signals.
Where we disagree with the crowd
| Scenario | Public perception | Harlan analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Star shooting 25% | "He's in a slump — take the Under." | Shooting regression is coming and the looks are good. Lean Over. |
| Bench player's minutes jump | "Too small a sample to trust." | It's a new rotation pattern, not noise. Edge locked in. |
| Back-to-back road games | "Everyone's tired — Under points." | Defense fades faster than offense. Lean Over. |
Ready to see the gap?
See what the market missed